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Prediction for CME (2026-04-30T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-30T18:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45936/-1
CME Note: Second of two faint, wide CMEs seen to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and to the southeast more prominently in STEREO A COR2; the source could be associated with a minor eruption in 14428 (~S24W11), with a slowly varying dimming signature starting after 18:00Z best viewed in SDO composite imagery, particularly the 304/211/171 Angstrom imager. Follows shortly behind CME: 2026-04-30T12:38Z which has a similar appearance. Triangulation between the SOHO and STEREO A spacecraft strongly suggests a front-sided source location, though the source is relatively uncertain. CME arrival characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 4 to 8 nT near 2026-05-04T04:10Z, a slow gradual rise to above 10 nT, and separation in magnetic field components after 2026-05-04T15:00Z until approximately 2026-05-06T04:00Z. Enhancements in solar wind density and small increases and decreases in velocity and temperature, respectively, were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-05-04T04:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-05T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single

Two-CME simulation which includes CMEs 2026-04-30T12:38Z and 2026-04-30T18:24Z.

Modeling indicates the potential for relatively high solar wind particle densities with any arrival, suggesting that the storm could overperform predicted/modeled geomagnetic parameters.

Link to 2-CME simulation page: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45940/1

Lead Time: 79.33 hour(s)
Difference: -23.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-30T20:50Z

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